Yes on Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
— 55.555556 @ 0.720
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ST
staflos
All-time PnL
$793.32
Win rate
77.8%
78 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$30.19
30d PnL
$224.77
30d trades
49
30d wins
6
12.2%
30d volume
$9.46k
Category edge
Politics
75.0%
+35.7pp
n=32
World
50.0%
-12.5pp
n=6
Sports
33.3%
-9.7pp
n=12
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
62.0% (31 wins / 19 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 12 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 8-day series
$627.87
-$291.87
Trading pattern
Politics Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Politics 82%
Why Politics Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Politics 82% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Politics specialist.
Directional bias: +0.52 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.63 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $73 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.76 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 63¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $72.76 · p90 $310.45
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sun 15:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
— 57.971012 @ 0.690
Yes on Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
— 389.61039 @ 0.770
Yes on Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
— 103.448276 @ 0.290
Yes on Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
— 76.923077 @ 0.390
Yes on Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
— 57.692308 @ 0.520
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 55 @ 0.730
Yes on Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
— 148.65 @ 0.600
Yes on Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
— 184.78 @ 0.750
Yes on Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
— 207.12 @ 0.140
Yes on Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
— 102.08 @ 0.530
Yes on Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
— 102.08 @ 0.490
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 55.55 @ 0.750
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 30 @ 0.740
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 28.69 @ 0.740
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 30 @ 0.750
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 69.34 @ 0.750
Yes on Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
— 434.782609 @ 0.690
Yes on Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
— 441.176471 @ 0.680
No on Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
— -$3.56 · 889 @ 0.996
No on Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
— +$16.29 · 108.576466 @ 0.850
Yes on Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
— +$92.30 · 615.32 @ 0.150
No on Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
— +$387.06 · 2580.4 @ 0.850
Yes on Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
— -$185.25 · 250.34 @ 0.740
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 257.29 @ 0.720
Yes on Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
— -$281.03 · 364.98 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 266 @ 0.720
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 120 @ 0.740
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 37.662338 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 200 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 65 @ 0.760
No on Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
— +$79.62 · 142.18 @ 0.440
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 80 @ 0.762
No on Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
— +$87.51 · 159.11 @ 0.450
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 91.77 @ 0.790
Alexander Volkanovski on UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)
— -$1.73 · 173 @ 0.990
Alexander Volkanovski on UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)
— +$73.20 · 173.197242 @ 0.577
Petr Yan on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— -$12.10 · 1210 @ 0.990
Petr Yan on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— +$126.23 · 485.225136 @ 0.740
Petr Yan on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— +$217.58 · 725.27 @ 0.700
Merab Dvalishvili on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— -$100.00 · 226.242223 @ 0.442
Merab Dvalishvili on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— -$76.92 · 101.21 @ 0.760
Merab Dvalishvili on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— -$73.02 · 101.41 @ 0.720
Merab Dvalishvili on UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
— -$140.43 · 203.04 @ 0.692
Alexander Volkov on UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)
— -$0.00 · 0.12 @ 0.999
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 142.21 @ 0.780
Alexander Volkov on UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)
— -$0.11 · 111 @ 0.999
Alexander Volkov on UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)
— +$15.06 · 111.121953 @ 0.864
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 120 @ 0.770
Yes on Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
— 10 @ 0.640
Integrity indicators
MEDIUMWin rate 75.0% vs market-implied 39.3% (z=4.14) in Politics over 32 markets
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.