Arb monitor
We watch negRisk basket arbitrage across Polymarket continuously and surface a riskless edge the instant one appears. Most of the time there are none — here’s the honest live state.
Monitoring / informational · top-of-book · not financial advice.
What this monitors
On a negRisk basket (a market with several mutually-exclusive outcomes), the “Yes” asks should sum to about $1. If they ever sum to less than $1, buying one share of every outcome costs under a dollar but pays out exactly $1 — a riskless edge.
In practice the order book almost always prices this out by ~the spread — the tightest complete basket right now sums to 97.7¢, just over $1. That’s expected; a standing sub-$1 basket would be taken instantly. The value here is the continuous watch, not a promise of arbs.
Live arbs
Why riskless: every leg has a resting ask and they sum to 97.7¢ — buy one of each for under $1, collect exactly $1 at resolution. Top-of-book snapshot; size is the thinnest leg’s depth. Not financial advice.
Descriptive frictions analysis on a top-of-book snapshot — after typical and live fees, not advice.