Yes on Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 3?
— 1536 @ 0.202
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RE
resuildde
All-time PnL
-$2.83k
Win rate
28.6%
10 of 36
Total trades
36
Avg PnL / trade
-$413.76
30d PnL
-$2.90k
30d trades
36
30d wins
2
5.6%
30d volume
$16.5k
Category edge
Crypto
7.7%
-38.3pp
n=13
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
12.5% (2 wins / 14 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 4 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 8-day series
$89.42
-$2.97k
Trading pattern
Politics-Leaningbuy-heavysmall-sizelongshot-hunterBuy-leaning · Politics 53%
Why Politics-Leaninghigh confidence · 36 trades
Category focus: Politics 53% of categorized trades — a lean toward Politics without full specialization.
Directional bias: +0.50 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.19 — Enters at long-odds prices (<0.30) — a longshot-hunter pattern.
Typical position size: median $249 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 1.27 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 19¢ · 36 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $248.91 · p90 $1.44k
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Tue 07:00 · 36 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2?
— -$0.40 · 400 @ 0.999
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?
— -$5.94 · 33 @ 0.180
Yes on Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 2?
— -$392.57 · 5167.9 @ 0.076
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$5.24 · 308 @ 0.017
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$314.13 · 16000 @ 0.020
Yes on Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
— 588.63 @ 0.097
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— +$953.46 · 11120.99 @ 0.086
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?
— -$505.48 · 3261.3 @ 0.155
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?
— -$31.51 · 179.99 @ 0.175
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$32.50 · 2500 @ 0.013
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$180.00 · 3600 @ 0.050
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$135.00 · 1500 @ 0.090
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$2.40k · 20000 @ 0.120
Yes on Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
— -$9.45 · 85.9 @ 0.110
Yes on Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— -$1.37 · 1371.77 @ 0.999
Yes on Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— -$55.38 · 865.27 @ 0.064
Yes on Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 121188.49 @ 0.012
Yes on Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
— +$146.17 · 393.99 @ 0.629
Yes on Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 10518.28 @ 0.005
Yes on Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 4938.62 @ 0.190
Yes on Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 5172.13 @ 0.031
Yes on Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
— 632.64 @ 0.556
Yes on Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
— 1943.82 @ 0.859
Yes on Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 1196 @ 0.123
Yes on Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 3394 @ 0.126
Yes on Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 22000 @ 0.022
Yes on Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 50 @ 0.012
Yes on Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 26.05 @ 0.021
Yes on Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 13800 @ 0.021
Yes on Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 11990 @ 0.012
Yes on Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 4672.91 @ 0.120
Yes on Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 17000 @ 0.109
Yes on Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
— 1923 @ 0.126
Yes on Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
— 797.65 @ 0.122
Yes on Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
— 1942.457365 @ 0.129
Integrity indicators
LOWWin rate 7.7% vs market-implied 46.0% (z=-2.77) in Crypto over 13 markets
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.