No on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 258.98 @ 0.976
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EL
Elonboy
All-time PnL
$149.68
Win rate
80.0%
80 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
$29.81
30d PnL
$149.04
30d trades
100
30d wins
4
4.0%
30d volume
$5.82k
Category edge
Politics
26.1%
-13.1pp
n=88
vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice
Signal hit rate
26.1% (23 wins / 65 misses)⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 5 markets — verify independentlyCumulative PnL · 3-day series
$0.00
-$240.53
Trading pattern
Politics Specialisttwo-sidedsmall-sizefavorite-backercategory-focusedSell-leaning · Politics 100%
Why Politics Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Politics 100% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Politics specialist.
Directional bias: -0.44 (two-sided) — Trades both sides fairly evenly — no strong directional lean.
Entry pricing: avg 0.70 — Enters at favorite prices (>0.70) — backs likely outcomes.
Typical position size: median $48 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 0.89 (moderate) — Stakes vary moderately across trades.
Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.
Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 70¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $47.80 · p90 $96.10
Activity · UTC
00h12h23h
peak Sat 14:00 · 100 trades
Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.
Recent trades
EXPORT
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.224
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.281
No on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 258.982482 @ 0.965
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 423.33 @ 0.016
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.196
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.178
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$14.35 · 478.85 @ 0.030
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$25.00 · 503.5964 @ 0.050
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$42.68 · 249.61 @ 0.171
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$34.80 · 200 @ 0.174
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$36.85 · 200 @ 0.184
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$25.00 · 141.251112 @ 0.177
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$14.00 · 100 @ 0.140
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$13.00 · 100 @ 0.130
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$14.60 · 100 @ 0.146
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$17.00 · 100 @ 0.170
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$34.06 · 250 @ 0.864
No on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$100.00 · 908.3675 @ 0.110
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 376.66 @ 0.017
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.020
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.020
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.019
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 200 @ 0.017
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$42.00 · 100 @ 0.580
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$21.50 · 50 @ 0.570
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$43.00 · 100 @ 0.570
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$11.17 · 400 @ 0.028
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$9.79 · 200 @ 0.049
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$9.04 · 200 @ 0.045
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— +$86.92 · 400 @ 0.217
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$18.00 · 100 @ 0.180
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$32.00 · 200 @ 0.160
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
— -$16.00 · 100 @ 0.160
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— +$0.03 · 1.030928 @ 0.970
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— +$0.01 · 1.014142 @ 0.986
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— +$0.01 · 1.0134 @ 0.987
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— +$0.02 · 1.018277 @ 0.982
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— +$0.01 · 1.0101 @ 0.990
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$7.35 · 214.84 @ 0.966
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.69 · 50 @ 0.966
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.70 · 50 @ 0.966
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.75 · 50 @ 0.965
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.90 · 50 @ 0.962
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.95 · 50 @ 0.961
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.97 · 50 @ 0.961
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$2.20 · 50 @ 0.956
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$4.40 · 100 @ 0.956
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$1.54 · 50 @ 0.969
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
— -$2.25 · 50 @ 0.955
Integrity indicators
LOWWin rate 26.1% vs market-implied 39.3% (z=-2.53) in Politics over 88 markets
Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.