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neutralwave23

0x5b63…11a4polymarket ↗last active 5d ago
All-time PnL
-$17.32
Win rate
50.0%
50 of 100
Total trades
100
Avg PnL / trade
-$1.32
30d PnL
-$34.22
30d trades
100
30d wins
13
13.0%
30d volume
$5.05k
Category edge
Sports
60.0%
+16.9pp
n=20
Crypto
34.6%
-11.4pp
n=26

vs cohort baseline per category · observed record only · not financial advice

Signal hit rate
45.7% (21 wins / 25 misses)
⚠ Possible wash trade
opposite positions detected on 10 markets — verify independently
Cumulative PnL · 1-day series
Not enough data to chart yet.
Trading pattern
Sports Specialistbuy-heavysmall-sizecategory-focusedBuy-leaning · Sports 64%
Why Sports Specialisthigh confidence · 100 trades
Category focus: Sports 64% of categorized trades — ≥60% concentrated in one category → a Sports specialist.
Directional bias: +0.56 (buy-heavy) — Mostly buys outcomes — leans into positions rather than fading them.
Entry pricing: avg 0.47 — Enters around mid-priced outcomes — no strong odds tilt.
Typical position size: median $11 — Small typical stake (<$500).
Sizing consistency: CV 2.33 (varied) — Stakes vary widely — opportunistic or conviction-weighted sizing.

Observed behaviour — descriptive, not predictive. NFA.

Entry price
0–10¢90–100¢
avg 47¢ · 100 trades
Position sizing
<$100$10k+
median $11.34 · p90 $141.84
Activity · UTC
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
00h12h23h
peak Mon 21:00 · 100 trades

Descriptive analytics of this trader’s observed public activity — not a prediction or recommendation. Not financial advice.

Recent trades

EXPORT
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Thunder on Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
— 20.211539 @ 0.520
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Seahawks on Bears vs. Seahawks
— 562.258065 @ 0.620
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
— 8.796297 @ 0.540
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-11-03?
— 10.818182 @ 0.440
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-02?
— 13.166667 @ 0.360
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Santos FC win on 2026-11-02?
— 81.655173 @ 0.290
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Polina Kudermetova on Set Handicap: Polina Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Viktoria Morvayova (+1.5)
— 7.885246 @ 0.610
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Up on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
— -$4.64 · 24.421053 @ 0.190
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Top Esports on LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
— 105.808511 @ 0.470
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
— +$3.44 · 8.189654 @ 0.580
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Over on Games Total: O/U 3.5
— 130.426664 @ 0.750
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
— -$11.26 · 26.19 @ 0.570
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
— +$21.55 · 26.194445 @ 0.177
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
on Games Total: O/U 3.5 AND Games Total: O/U 3.5 AND Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) AND Games Total: O/U 3.5
— 33.736109 @ 0.286
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-02?
— 6.882966 @ 0.940
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Up on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
— -$4.63 · 28.852942 @ 0.160
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
— 99 @ 0.240
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Nicolas Mejia on Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone
— 39.37 @ 0.230
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
— 74.076924 @ 0.130
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Cooman Team on Dota 2: rostikfacekid TEAM vs Cooman Team (BO3) - Fonbet Media Eleague Group Stage
— 10.87 @ 0.998
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Botic van de Zandschulp on Set Handicap: Ugo Humbert (-1.5) vs Botic van de Zandschulp (+1.5)
— 229.545455 @ 0.550
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Botic van de Zandschulp on Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp
— 567.36 @ 0.250
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
— 55.21 @ 0.125
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-11-02?
— -$0.04 · 41.52 @ 0.999
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
— -$4.60 · 83.717143 @ 0.055
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
— +$35.31 · 42.3 @ 0.835
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
— -$4.68 · 13.764706 @ 0.340
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
— +$12.17 · 31.213115 @ 0.610
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Nicolas Mejia on Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone
— 39.375 @ 0.240
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Ugo Humbert on Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp
— 268.22 @ 0.700
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
— -$23.79 · 42.307018 @ 0.562
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Ugo Humbert on Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp
— 119.2 @ 0.438
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
No on US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
— 395.15 @ 0.132
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-11-02?
— +$1.99 · 33.212766 @ 0.940
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Down on Solana Up or Down - November 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
— -$4.82 · 8.607143 @ 0.560
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-02?
— 137.51 @ 0.890
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?
— +$1.85 · 11.583331 @ 0.840
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Ugo Humbert on Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp
— 115.52 @ 0.360
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Under on Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5
— +$4.14 · 13.8 @ 0.700
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?
— +$0.86 · 5.717646 @ 0.850
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?
— -$4.84 · 6.205127 @ 0.780
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Botic van de Zandschulp on Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp
— 1578.897015 @ 0.668
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-02?
— 10.83333 @ 0.900
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?
— +$1.20 · 8.01176 @ 0.850
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
— 49.58 @ 0.291
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Over on Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5
— +$6.43 · 160.63 @ 0.040
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Up on Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
— -$4.73 · 9.46 @ 0.500
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Santos FC win on 2026-11-02?
— 676.392858 @ 0.280
↑BUY·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-02?
— 5.41111 @ 0.900
↓SELL·5d agostale·0x5b63…11a4why? →
Yes on Will RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?
— +$11.35 · 15.76 @ 0.720
Integrity indicators

No anomalies detected for this trader.

Anomaly indicators reflect statistical patterns only. May have innocent explanations.